Thanks to Girish I have started Blogging after a long hiatus, hopefully I will be more consistent
India is going to general elections soon and I am turning into an armchair psephologist.
The factors I have accounted for in for my numbers are results from recent Assembly elections, anti incumbency factors, reading publications and lot of political literature and the mix of allies on each side( very very Important )
I started with tabulating the number of Lok Sabha seats for each state ( not easy to get over the internet)For each state I divided into Broad categories NDA + Allies, UPA + Allies and the Third Front and either ways ( specifically north east regional parties ).
The total number of Lok Sabha seats are 543 and 272 is required to form a minority government.
The totals I got from my research is
NDA ( BJP + Allies) 198
UPA ( Congress + Allies ) 212
Third Front ( Left+ Mayawati + TDP+ AIADMK) 130
Either way 3
The Single Largest party will be BJP with around 147 seats and Congress will be second with around 126 seats.
This throws an interesting mix as the single largest party will not head the largest alliance. Hence the President will ask both alliances with letters of support and the one reaching the 272 mark will be asked to form the Government. There will be hullabaloo with BJP asking the first right to stake claim, but that is not going to happen with a Congress appointed President at the helm.
I will not go into details for each state but focus on major ones and the ones that will make the difference:
Andra Pradesh UPA : 20 Third Front ( TDP ) : 23
TRS ( Telangana Rashtra Samiti ) this time will be a no show, they had 4 Lok Sabha seats last time. TDP will come back strong but not with a sweep. Chiranjeeve’s party will eat into votes on both sides but will not be a strong force in itself. Hence the division of seats is almost equal both between third front and Congress
Bihar NDA 25 UPA 15
JD ( U ) will save BJP, Rail Mantri state will give him a better result than last time.
Gujarat NDA 20 UPA 6
Thanks to Modi and finally entire BJP falling behind him and the Patel rebels gone for good a BJP sweep
Jharkand NDA 10 UPA 4
The ekkas, mundas and sorens will be a no show. Will be a JD (U)+ BJP sweep
Karnataka NDA 18 UPA 9
The first BJP state will remain with BJP, UPA could add a few seats on its side if they go into a prepoll alliance with Deve Gowda’s JD( s). After elections Gowda could dump UPA for third front incase the numbers do not go in Congress favour.
Madhya Pradesh NDA 18 UPA 11
Advantage NDA,UPA second, recent assembly elections show BJP will hold. Uma Bharti will be a no show.
Maharashtra NDA 20 UPA 28
The above numbers will only hold true if Congress and NCP go into a pre poll alliance. Inspite of 11/26 the 20 seats NDA ( BJP+ Shiv Sena ) will get will be from Urban Centers . Raj Thackeray’s MNS could play spoiler and lead to division of votes for SS. Best party to perform in the state will be NCP. Again NCP could join the Third Front if the numbers don’t add up in Congress’s favor.
Orissa NDA 15 UPA 6
My home state has returned NDA ( BJD+BJP) to the centre 3 times in a row. This time will be no different just because the congress and no other party exits as a viable alternative.
Rajasthan NDA 13 UPA 12
Equal Equal for both parties. Recent Assembly elections results suggest that. Although Congress won the state elections, this state tends to vote towards BJP at the Center.
Tamil Nadu UPA 14 Third front (AIADMK) 25
Advantage Aamma, inspite of emoting the Sri Lanka Tamil issue DMK,PMK and MDMK will not make a sweep, but may scrap up till 14 seats with pre poll alliances. AIADMK will win purely on the anti incumbency factor. This state alternates between the two parties every election. This times its AIADMK’s turn.
Uttar Pradesh NDA ( BJP+RLD) 14 UPA 26 ( Congress + SP) Third Front 40 ( BSP )
This state sends the maximum members to Lok Sabha. And its all Maya here. BJP’s performance will be dismal ( Kalyan Singh’s exit will not help ) It may scrap 14 seats if it gets into a Pre Poll alliance with Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal. Ajit Singh may himself join the Third Front after the Polls. Its advantage Mayawati here. With 40 seats project she will be a major player siding with either BJP, Congress or Third Front and extracting her pound of flesh. If BSP wins 45+ seats on its own nothing is stopping the Dalit ki Beti or any of her BSP Protégé from becoming the Prime Minister of India.
West Bengal UPA ( Congress + Trinamool Congress ) 12 Third Front ( CPM+CPI) 30
In case Congress and Trinamool Congress go into a pre Poll alliance they may win 12 seats (Urban Calcutta , Malda and Singrur areas) .Rest will still go with the left parties. One has to visit West Bengal to see the vice like grip the Left parties have on the state . Left inspite of everything will manage 30 seats. If Congress projects Pranabda ( arguably the best cabinet minister in recent times ) as Prime Minister Congress could grab a few more seats here, but Soniaji ( being sarcastic ) will not let that happen. Last year left parties had the best show ever in the Lok Sabha elections winning almost 60 seats. This time they may end around 40+ seats ( 10 Kerala, 30 West Bengal, 2 Tripura )
Who will form the Next Government :
Inspite of being a diehard BJP follower, unless a miracle happens the possibility of a BJP lead NDA government is remote.
Scenario 1:
UPA + Left + AIADMK+ RLD + Small North East parties– Trinamool Congress - DMK ( 212 + 40+ 25+4 +5-10-10 ) = 266 ( 6 short of the half way mark , 272 can be achieved thru splinter groups or break away factions, if Left joins UPA , Mamta di’s Trinamool Congress will leave and if AIADMK joins DMK leaves UPA. UPA forms Government. Government pretty similar as today with just ally change in Tamil Nadu.
Scenario 2:
UPA+BSP+AIADMK+Left+RLD+ Small North Eastern Party - Trinamool –SP-DMK ( 212+40+25+40+4+5-10-20-10) = 286
According to me above is the most likely scenario for the next Government . Congress Led Government with BSP asking for plum ministerial posts. A Mayawati Protégé could end up Deputy Prime Minister. Mayawati herself will remain CM of UP and control a lot of strings to her advantage. If BSP joins SP will leave UPA and similarly if Left joins Trinamool Congress will leave UPA and if AIADMK joins DMK will leave UPA.
A very similar scenario is UPA+BSP+Left+RLD+Small North Eastern Party - Trinamool –SP ( 212+40+40+4+5-10-20) = 271 ( one short of halfway mark , 272 can be easily achieved thru splinter groups or break away factions)
Scenario 3 :
BSP+Left+TDP+AIADMK+NCP+JD (S)+RLD + Congress Outside Support (40+40+23+25+15+5+4+126) = ( 152+ 126 )=278
The above is a doomsday scenario but extremely possible ( the second most likely government Option in 2009) . If Mayawati by any chance wins a total of 45+ seats for BSP, nothing will stop the above scenario from happening and the congress reluctantly giving outside support to keep BJP at bay. Mayawati will become Prime minister. The Government will be unstable and may fall within the first 2 years.But I would repeat, I fear the above may become true . Lets Wait till May and pray the otherwise.
Scenario 4:
NDA+BSP+AIADMK+TDP ( 198+40+25+23) =286
Although unlikely but possible as the numbers adds up , politics has strange bed fellows, so the above is quite possible the two ladies Mayawati and Amma will give L.K Advani a hard time and with a patriarch like Vajpayeeji ( here being respectful) missing maintaining the flock will be extremely difficult. If BSP joins the government she will ask for Deputy prime ministership for one of her partymen and Amma will ask for plum portfolios too. If BJP performs strong on its own then the above scenario will come true and L.K advani could be next PM. Interestingly the analysis shows Scenario 2 and Scenario 4 have equal numbers ( 286 ). That shows whether it’s a Congress led Government or a BJP led Government , the fate will be decided by two ladies Maya and Aamma.
People may disagree or agree with my analysis and may be I may be proved wrong in May 2009, but hey that’s what democracy is all about (Differences, Consensus and Surprises)
Until the next post Ciao,
Yug
